Harris versus. DeSantis? What early polls say about a 2024 race without Trump and Biden


Although President Joe Biden has said he plans to run for office in 2024 and former President Donald Trump is sending strong signals Regarding another candidacy, their age has raised speculation that it could be a largely open competition – a competition that early polls show would take place between Vice President Kamala Harris and the Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis.


Harris tends to dominate the Democratic National Primary in polls without Biden, who turns 82 in 2024 – A survey McLaughlin & Associates’ GOP poll in mid-May placed her at 35% against 16% of former First Lady Michelle Obama, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.) at 7%.

This echoes a Trafalgar Group Survey earlier in May, Harris led with 41%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 9% and Ocasio-Cortez with 7%, along with polls showing Harris dominating in the early primary states. Iowa and New Hampshire.

The GOP side is more confused, but a survey by the firm GOP Echelon Insights Released Friday, DeSantis leads at 22%, former Vice President Mike Pence trailing 14%, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) at 9% and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%.

The Trafalger poll in early May had DeSantis in the lead with 35% even more than 15% Cruz and 10% Pence, but the McLaughlin poll had Pence ahead of him by one point, 19% to 18%, with Donald Trump Jr. at 13 years old. %.

Still, if Trump, who turns 78 in 2024, were to run, polls suggest he would clear the ground as effectively as he did in 2016 and 2020 – A Politico/ Morning consultation mid-May put its support at 48%, with Pence at 13% and DeSantis at 8%.

Key context

Harris and Biden have a close partnership and she has given the Biden campaign a boost in polls and fundraising. DeSantis has won praise from conservatives across the country and comparison to Donald Trump in the press for his unapologetic right-wing style of governance. This includes resistance to measures adopted by many states to combat the coronavirus and, more recently, crackdown on mask warrants and vaccine passports.

Crucial quote

“Ron DeSantis is doing a really good job in Florida,” Trump said in a podcast interview in March, when asked about Republicans he sees as potential successors, also listing Cruz, Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) And Rand Paul (R -Ky.) And South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem – but, notably, not Pence, whom he blamed for his failure to reverse his election loss to 2020.


Polls this far from the actual primary are hit and miss when it comes to predicting the eventual winner. Among the early leaders 2016 GOP Primary Polls were Paul, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, some of whom barely entered primary contests as Trump battled for victory. Still, Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both led early and won their respective primaries in 2020 and 2016 – though polls don’t predict the close battle Clinton would have with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I- Vt.).

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