House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump at risk

Data: Axios search; Table: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

At least six of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump last year will not return to the next Congress — and that number is set to rise.

Why is this important: The dark political future of those who broke with the ex-president on January 6 highlights how inhospitable the party has become to critics of Trump.

Driving the news: Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) lost his primary on Tuesday to former Trump-backed HUD official John Gibbs despite spending heavily.

The backdrop: Meijer is the second impeachment Republican to lose re-election this year.

  • Rep. Tom Rice (RS.C.) lost his primary in June to Trump-endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry by more than 25 points.

By the numbers: Four of the impeachment Republicans are not even seeking re-election after announcing their intention to retire.

  • Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), a member of the Jan. 6 committee, and Reps. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio), John Katko (RN.Y.) and Fred Upton (R-Mich.) are all resigning from this mandate.
  • Kinzinger, Gonzalez and Upton faced major Trump-approved foes and, in some cases, saw their path to victory further complicated by the redistricting.

What we are looking at: Reps. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) also faced the primaries on Tuesday, and while races aren’t called, both look set to qualify for the general election. .

  • What is less clear is whether they will advance with Democratic opponents or Trump-backed Republicans running to their right.

And after: The impeachment Republicans still standing are not off the hook just yet.

  • Trump-backed Harriet Hageman is favored to beat Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), vice chair of the Jan. 6 committee, in the Aug. 16 primary.
  • Herrera Beutler, though she has a Democratic opponent, is in a district that voted for Trump by just 5 points in 2020 — though she would be favored to win.
  • Rep. David Valadao (R-California), who has beaten several right-wing challengers, is in a district that voted for President Biden by double digits, and he faces a credible Democratic opponent in state Rep. Rudy Salas.

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