With the midterm elections a week away, a number of Republican candidates are gaining ground in heavily Democratic states.
While it’s still largely about who will end up controlling the House and Senate after Nov. 8, with a number of gubernatorial races seemingly still ongoing, there are races in California, Connecticut and in New York which are beginning to take unexpected turns.
If the GOP has any hope of emerging victorious in the midterm elections, it will not only have to retain all of its Congressional and Senate seats, as well as its gubernatorial positions, but also score shock victories in key blue or swing. .
While gaining ground in some initial polls isn’t a surefire sign of an eventual victory for the GOP, Newsweek examined three midterm races that could still have Democrats in a state of panic.
Lee Zeldin, New York
New York gubernatorial hopeful Lee Zeldin continues to see a surge as Nov. 8 approaches, with the Republican overtaking Gov. Kathy Hochul in a recent Trafalgar Group poll.
The poll of 1,198 likely voters, taken between Oct. 27 and Oct. 31, shows Zelda narrowly ahead of the incumbent Democrat by 48.4% to 47.6%.
A separate co/efficient survey released on October 21 also shows that Zeldin is slightly ahead of Hochul, leading 45.6-45.3%. The survey results are a continuation of a trend in which Zeldin has been gaining ground on Hochul.
In August, Hochul was 24 points ahead of Zeldin in a SurveyUSA/WNYT poll (55 to 31%). In another SurveyUSA poll for TV stations WHEC and WNYT released Oct. 20, Hochul’s lead had been reduced to just six points (47% from 41).
Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist, previously said Newsweek that Zeldin’s improvement in the polls is partly due to his crime-focused campaign, while Democrats are still primarily hoping the fallout on abortion rights will help them beat the GOP in November.
“Democrats Nationally and Locally Support a Positive Voter Response to Reversing Abortion Legalization Roe vs. Wade“, Sheinkopf said.
“Usually it’s the economy and crime that, in their minds, equates Biden. Kathy Hochul, even in Democratic-blue New York, suffers from a sense that things are just out of control.”
Brian Maryott, 49th District of California
Although still expected to lose eventually, Republican nominee Brian Maryott managed to turn the race against Democratic Representative Mike Levin more in his favor, although the seat became slightly more Republican in the redistricting.
With the polls open a week away, Cook’s political report rankings moved California’s 49th District from “Lean Democrat” to “toss-up.” Politico also lists the California race between Levin and Maryott as a draw.
Levin is still the overwhelming favorite to win the race, with FiveThirtyEight giving the Democrat an 81% chance of victory. However, Maryott managed to claw back some of the deficit as the polls approached, with Levin having a 93% chance of victory as recently as October 17.
“It’s not unusual for the races to come closer on Election Day,” said San Diego County Nominating Advisor Martha Parrish. california globe. “But we’re seeing 10-point, 15-point, even 20-point jumps for GOP candidates across California in different areas. There’s only so much you can explain outside of ads.”
“In the Levin-Maryott race, a lot of people thought this boost in support was a fluke, but as we see it’s anything but. Right now, Levin still looks like he’s going to win. , but Maryott now has an outside All that has to be right has to be right for that to happen, and God only knows mail-in and mail-in ballots, but Maryott and other Republicans are seeing that increase.
“The Democrats claimed that San Diego and Orange County were more Democratic, but they forget that there are a lot of moderates and unaffiliated people here. If Maryott even closes the race, the Democrats are going to be worried. “
George Logan, Connecticut 5th District
In the first public opinion poll released regarding the Connecticut congressional race, Republican George Logan was found to have a one-point lead over incumbent Representative Jahana Hayes.
The WTNH/The Hill/Emerson College survey of 500 likely voters, released Oct. 27, found Logan with 48 to 47 percent on Hayes, with 4 percent still undecided.
When it comes to the issues most important to voters, nearly half of those polled said it was the economy, with abortion second at 15% and concerns about threats to democracy third. position with 14%.
When further broken down, 45% of voters said the reversal Roe vs. Wade made them much more likely to vote, with 5% saying somewhat more likely, while 46% said it made no difference.