Republicans are in great shape to win a majority in the House

With the redistribution – the ten-year redistribution of congressional seats – more than halfway over (31 states have finalized their lines for the next decade), the Cook Report released its first assessments of districts in states that have finished with the redistribution.

The rankings suggest a clear Republican tendency at the playing field. There are 22 Democratic districts classified as competitive by Cook compared to just 14 for Republicans.

But that doesn’t even tell the whole story. Of the 22 Democratic seats, three (6th from Arizona, 7th from New Jersey and 15th from Texas) are classified as “skinny Republicans” while two others (2nd from Arizona and 10th from Michigan) are classified “probably. republican ”.

Republicans have only one seat classified as “Lean Democrat” or “probably Democrat”: the race for open seats in Illinois’ 13th.

Among the “toss up” races, there are also more Democratic (eight) than Republican (six) seats.

This is obviously less than a full picture of the playing field. Currently, the Cook Report ranks 263 seats, or about 60% of the eventual 435-seat playing field.

But it does suggest that Republicans have effectively used the advantages they had at the start of this redistribution year, carve out pro-GOP seats and solidify existing members on the cards across the country.

“Still a long way to go, but Republicans are clearly the favorites for control,” tweeted David Wasserman, Cook’s redistribution guru.

What’s remarkable about the Republican outlook in the House is that it remains so positive despite its incumbent leader (Donald Trump) not only accepting blunt assertions about the 2020 election, but pushing for also a civil war within the GOP.

Gaining a majority in the House – as seems likely at the moment – may well mask these problems within the party. At least, Republicans hope so.

Point: Republicans seem to thrive, politically, in spite of themselves.

About Therese Williams

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