Republicans dominate largest congressional poll of Democrats since 1981

Top line

Democrats concerned about the party’s prospects of retaining control of Congress received yet another piece of bad news on Tuesday, with a key poll showing Republicans now hold a 10 percentage point lead among registered voters.

Highlights

The Washington post/ The ABC News poll, which is considered one of the most reliable political polls, found that 51% of registered voters leaned for Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, with just 41% for Democrats.

The finding marks by far the biggest advance Republicans have ever held on a Congressional ballot in polling history, which has been examining the issue since 1981.

Among all recent polls, Republicans hold an average two percentage point lead over Democrats, averaged over RealClearPolitics polls, although Democrats traditionally dominate generic congressional polls.

Surprising fact

President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats predict that passing the $ 1.2 trillion infrastructure package will help reverse Biden’s declining approval rating and party fortunes around mid-terms. Only 8% of those polled in Tuesday’s poll said they believe Biden has done a “great job” since taking office, while 45% think he has done “little or nothing” and 18% say he did “not much”. Biden signed the infrastructure bill on Monday.

Key context

Democrats tightly control the House of Representatives and hold the Senate with the thinnest margins possible, with an even 50-50 split between the GOP and Democratic caucuses, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris as the decisive vote in favor of the Democrats . But despite holding majorities, Democratic leaders have been frustrated by infighting between the party’s centrists and its more left-wing progressive wing, which sparked a months-long standoff that delayed adoption of the package. infrastructure until November 5. Meanwhile, Republicans have been hammering Democrats over what they say is a lack of capacity to govern as the nation faces growing challenges, like inflation.

What to watch out for

Despite the takeover of Congress in 2020, Democrats have failed to make significant inroads in ballot races, such as state legislative seats. The state’s losses could prove devastating for Democrats nationally, as they left Republicans in control of redistributing lines for congressional districts in states like Ohio and North Carolina, where legislatures controlled by the GOP create new districts to add Republican seats and remove power from Democrats.

Tangent

Tuesday Washington post/ An ABC News poll also found that 60% of American adults want the Supreme Court to uphold the Roe v. Wade who guarantees the right to abortion.

Further reading

Republicans will enter 2021 with control of most state governments. Here’s why it matters for redistribution. (Forbes)

House passes bipartisan infrastructure bill after days of arguing – but Democrats’ social spending bill delayed (Forbes)

65% of Americans want Supreme Court to reject Texas abortion law, poll finds as court deliberates (Forbes)

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