Republicans still favored in midterm elections, but their chances of retaking the Senate are dwindling

Republicans are widely expected to score victories in November’s midterm elections, largely thanks to Americans’ frustrations with runaway inflation.

High RB00 gasoline prices,
+0.39%
and other essentials help keep President Joe Biden’s approval ratings low — and give Republicans a talking point to use against Biden and his fellow Democrats.

But the GOP’s chances of regaining control of the Senate have dwindled significantly this month, as shown in the chart below based on data from the PredictIt betting market. They have fallen to around 63%, from nearly 80% in mid-June.

Republicans’ odds of winning back the House haven’t seen that kind of dip and remain strong — at around 86%.

The drop in the GOP Senate’s odds came as June polls in some key races favor the Democrats.

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, for example, Democratic candidate John Fetterman had a 9-point advantage over GOP candidate Mehmet Oz, and in Georgia’s contest, Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock had a 10-point advantage. on Republican candidate Herschel Walker.

Extract from MarketWatch archives (May 2022): Dr. Oz, former Bridgewater CEO and ‘gentle giant’: How the Pennsylvania Senate race could upend national politics

And see : The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade could boost Democratic turnout in midterm elections

To be sure, the GOP still looks likely to retake the Senate 50-50, which Democrats currently control only because Vice President Kamala Harris can vote in a tie.

It’s hard for Democrats to keep their grip on the chamber “in a situation where Senate results are highly correlated with presidential approval for jobs,” Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, said in a published column. Wednesday.

“While the quality of Republican candidates is an issue, a good analysis must not lose sight of the fact that the environment matters as well, and probably more these days,” Trende wrote.

“While we should give more than a superficial nod to the possibility of the Democrats holding the Senate (as opposed to the possibility of the Democrats holding the House, which is hardly worth that nod), we should also say with some confidence that the Republicans are the favorites to win,” he also said.

The additional charts below show the top Senate races to watch, as well as how each party performed in a generic Congressional ballot.

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